Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfeab…3ccc other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$447 (+18%) realized +$409 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 35L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$231
14 days+$417
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$249
sports 11% +$118
crypto 8% −$24
world 6% +$138
economics 1% −$26
culture 0% −$11
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 58% +5.4%
≤30d 34 +58.9% +43.7% 68% 62% +15.7%
≤90d 48 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 50% +15.7%
all 71 +7.6% -2.7% 51% 45% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 45% +9.3%
10% -12.0% 35% -1.2%
15% -20.5% 31% -10.7%
20% -28.3% 27% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$11 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized+$409
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)71 / 96
History coverage155d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $20 $99 +$79 (+391%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 48¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $23 $2 −$21 (-92%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-92%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$11 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $65 +$60 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $131 +$38 +29%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $73 +$26 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $76 +$34 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $106 +$53 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $109 −$85 -78%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$20 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$51 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 +$11 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $97 −$97 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $146 +$94 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$8 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$14 +226%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +291%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $21 +$79 +380%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$51 +575%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$31 +58%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11 +$22 +199%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $13 +$7 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $5 +$15 +285%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? May 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $7 −$7 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $21 +$38 +183%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 18 $17 +$23 +134%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? May 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $16 +$3 +20%
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $168 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 13h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $65 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $98 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $55 37h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 37h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $106 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $97 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.63 · official $518.63 (match) · 271 history records