Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeae…d0a2 other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$115 (+4%) realized −$222 · open +$337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,223
crypto 39% −$694
sports 15% −$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.4% -15.3% 30% 25% -19.8%
≤30d 20 -6.4% -15.3% 30% 25% -19.8%
≤90d 20 -6.4% -15.3% 30% 25% -19.8%
all 20 -6.4% -15.3% 30% 25% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 25% -19.8%
10% -23.4% 25% -27.5%
15% -30.8% 25% -34.5%
20% -37.6% 15% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$94 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$867
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$337
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)20 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 14¢ 90¢ $100 $646 +$546 (+546%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+125%)
Raphinha: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 4¢ $100 $22 −$78 (-78%)
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$73 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 +$897 +874%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $218 −$214 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2h
Raphinha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $102 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $103 42h
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 44h
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.45 · official $911.35 · 65 history records