Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfeb0…d4a4 sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL +$150 (+7%) realized +$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%74W / 59L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$86
other 43% $0
tech 9% +$75
politics 1% −$8
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +60.8% +45.4% 58% 53% -16.1%
≤30d 25 +50.3% +36.0% 56% 52% -13.2%
≤90d 52 +9.1% -1.3% 46% 44% -20.4%
all 133 +13.4% +2.6% 56% 53% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 53% -3.0%
10% -7.2% 46% -12.3%
15% -16.2% 38% -20.8%
20% -24.4% 31% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses74 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)133 / 136
History coverage211d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$2 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 +$3 +49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +58%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$14 +1404%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -58%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +111%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +95%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $2 +$1 +90%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $5 −$4 -81%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4 +$2 +62%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -12%
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to Score May 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $5 +$5 +97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $4 +$1 +29%
CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score May 03 $5 +$4 +81%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$7 +71%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 29 $19 −$2 -13%
CF América vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 60 million views on day 3 Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3 Apr 15 $24 −$6 -24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $3 −$2 -80%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $5 +$2 +42%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Apr 04 $10 −$5 -54%
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-15? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 84¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 15h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 68¢ $6 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $15 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $3 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $4 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $2 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.48 · official $12.49 (match) · 305 history records