Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb3…a372 other 55 markets active 11h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$13
other 25% −$2
politics 15% $0
sports 7% −$20
culture 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.0% -15.9% 12% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 20% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 15 -3.8% -13.0% 20% 0% -11.6%
all 55 -1.6% -10.9% 24% 2% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -12.1%
10% -19.5% 2% -20.5%
15% -27.2% 0% -28.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage297d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $49 +$3 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $107 −$5 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $20 −$10 -50%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $76 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $89 −$1 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $13 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $68 +$1 +1%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $5 $0 +4%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $49 −$20 -41%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 21 $5 $0 -9%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 27 $7 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 24 $1 $0 +9%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 22 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $51 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $49 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $42 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $53 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $48 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $49 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $54 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $54 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $20 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $24 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $65 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $64 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records