Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfeb3…4091 sports 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,823 (+7%) realized +$2,823 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%93W / 116L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$191
14 days+$851
30 days+$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$3,013
crypto 20% −$415
other 6% +$269
economics 0% −$145
world 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +32.7% +20.1% 62% 62% +17.6%
≤30d 36 +13.4% +2.6% 44% 44% +7.3%
≤90d 133 -22.9% -30.2% 35% 35% -15.6%
all 209 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 44% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 44% -3.5%
10% -24.0% 41% -12.7%
15% -31.3% 36% -21.1%
20% -38.0% 34% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$113 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,823
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses93 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 226
History coverage290d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$42 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$12 +51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$40 +206%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$95 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$42 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $66 −$63 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $98 −$88 -90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? A Jun 18 $102 +$178 +174%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $43 +$34 +80%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 −$34 -72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$90 +177%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $315 −$264 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$13 -30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$67 +262%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$39 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $408 +$569 +140%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 −$21 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$28 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $54 −$4 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 −$29 -61%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $25 +$4 +17%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $14 +$29 +208%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $406 +$383 +94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $424 +$446 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $153 −$148 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 27 $233 −$185 -80%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $335 −$329 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 23 $78 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 23 $78 +$69 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $280 −$276 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 21 $26 +$13 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 19 $27 +$25 +95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $576 +$351 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 18 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $9 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $24 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 34¢ $34 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $19 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 22¢ $23 36h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $136 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $112 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 38¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $70 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $31 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $13 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $98 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $66 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY $15 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end i BUY $23 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $26 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? A SELL 89¢ $280 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 10¢ $27 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY $2 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 21¢ $61 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 571 history records