Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FE 0xfeb4…13b6 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 692d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$343 (-4%) realized −$199 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$268
14 days−$757
30 days−$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$649
sports 33% −$925
other 29% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +262.4% +227.9% 100% 100% +227.9%
≤30d 6 -24.6% -31.8% 17% 17% -69.4%
≤90d 6 -24.6% -31.8% 17% 17% -69.4%
all 7 -17.9% -25.8% 29% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 29% -11.4%
10% -32.9% 14% -19.9%
15% -39.4% 14% -27.6%
20% -45.3% 14% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$459 vs −$205 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$1,243
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage692d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $500 $440 −$60 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $200 $233 +$33 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $287 $197 −$90 (-31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 36¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $2,129 −$559 -26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $102 −$55 -54%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $315 −$310 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $2,940 +$651 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $101 6m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 8¢ $103 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $550 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 8d
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,482 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $2,129 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 21¢ $44 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $96 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $315 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $102 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $982 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 47¢ $3,591 667d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,940 692d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,242.57 · official $1,242.88 (match) · 38 history records