Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfeb5…9390 crypto 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-10%) realized −$91 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%92W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$36
14 days−$143
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$62
other 24% −$66
sports 10% −$26
world 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -22.8% -30.2% 16% 16% -19.4%
≤30d 216 -23.3% -30.6% 25% 23% -24.4%
≤90d 325 -19.2% -26.9% 28% 25% -21.8%
all 325 -19.2% -26.9% 28% 25% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 25% -21.8%
10% -33.9% 23% -29.3%
15% -40.2% 23% -36.1%
20% -46.1% 20% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses92 / 233
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)325 / 341
History coverage53d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+20%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$28 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$94 +1755%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +143%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$17 +488%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +38%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $3 +$6 +190%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$60 +388%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $99 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.84 · official $42.84 (match) · 1015 history records