Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb6…5f3a crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate64%54W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$8
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$11
world 6% −$1
other 5% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +180.3% +153.6% 100% 100% +153.6%
≤30d 81 +13.2% +2.4% 65% 31% -5.0%
≤90d 85 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 29% -7.1%
all 85 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 29% -7.1%
10% -10.8% 22% -16.0%
15% -19.4% 16% -24.1%
20% -27.3% 15% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses54 / 31
Open positions9
Markets (closed)85 / 94
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 70¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 76¢ 73¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 79¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 75¢ 70¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$17 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +159%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $4 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 28 $4 −$2 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? May 28 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $2 +$2 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $3 +$2 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 26? May 27 $2 $0 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? May 27 $2 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $3 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25? May 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 71¢ $2 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 76¢ $2 3h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $1 5h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.04 · official $24.24 (match) · 307 history records