Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfeb6…6373 politics 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL −$46 (-7%) realized −$65 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%63W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$112
14 days−$79
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$92
world 29% +$13
politics 28% +$13
sports 3% −$1
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -59.4% -63.3% 19% 19% -49.7%
≤30d 101 -14.3% -22.4% 35% 35% -27.5%
≤90d 152 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 38% -18.4%
all 152 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 38% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 38% -18.4%
10% -22.7% 36% -26.2%
15% -30.2% 34% -33.3%
20% -37.0% 27% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses63 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage52d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? No 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "No No No" be said on ICEMAN? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Pinocchio" be said on ICEMAN? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "All time high" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" during events in Rockland County? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fuel" during Wisconsin events? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wesley So win the 2026 Grand Chess Tour Super Rapid & Blitz Polan Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Armani" be said on ICEMAN? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cann Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vance say "President" or "Trump" 10+ times during Air Force Acade Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Canne Jun 13 $6 −$3 -51%
Will Trump say "President Biden" this week? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 13 $13 +$10 +78%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events in Rockland County? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 13 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $9 +$7 +78%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during Tele-Ral Jun 12 $5 +$7 +127%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $9 +$9 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? SELL No 52¢ $3 1h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 3h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF SELL Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 6h
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? BUY No 20¢ $1 7h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY Yes 35¢ $0 11h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 35¢ $1 21h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 45¢ $2 23h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 25h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 25h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 27h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY Yes 35¢ $2 32h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 36h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 39h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 40h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 46h
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rallies? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? BUY No 35¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.34 · official $5.34 (match) · 395 history records