Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb7…dad9 politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 40% −$19
sports 8% +$33
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 +2.2% -7.6% 5% 3% -9.6%
all 127 +2.5% -7.2% 9% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage110d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Hornets vs. Nets Nets 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Rockets Raptors 36¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pistons Lakers 53¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Pistons Raptors 41¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mavericks 26¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $331 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $349 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $295 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $295 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $254 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $300 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $308 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $501 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $325 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,335 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? May 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $198 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $325 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $243 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $323 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $314 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $291 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 15h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 15d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $295 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $281 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $281 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 22d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $295 22d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $295 23d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 382 history records