Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FE 0xfebb…9c5c sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$35 (+22%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$17
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$34
other 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +43.1% +29.5% 60% 60% +31.5%
≤30d 29 +13.9% +3.0% 52% 52% +10.2%
≤90d 29 +13.9% +3.0% 52% 52% +10.2%
all 29 +13.9% +3.0% 52% 52% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 52% +10.2%
10% -6.8% 52% -0.3%
15% -15.8% 52% -10.0%
20% -24.1% 48% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 65¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $6 +$6 +96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $9 −$1 -9%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $7 +$11 +152%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $4 +$4 +101%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $8 +$5 +67%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $3 +$2 +65%
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Mark Lajal: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 -8%
Shnaider vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $4 +$2 +44%
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $4 +$2 +57%
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $3 +$4 +134%
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Andreeva vs. Teichmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $7 +$5 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $10 −$2 -21%
Ruud vs. Paul: Match O/U 36.5 May 29 $6 +$5 +76%
Li vs. Parry: Match O/U 21.5 May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $4 +$6 +140%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5) May 25 $5 +$3 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 24 $3 $0 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges May 24 $3 +$6 +206%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $6 +$6 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $13 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $6 30h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 2d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 57¢ $6 4d
Mboko vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $9 5d
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 39¢ $7 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Édgar Cháirez 49¢ $4 8d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Alexandra Eala 59¢ $8 9d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 60¢ $3 10d
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Mark Lajal: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 38¢ $5 10d
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Mark Lajal: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 40¢ $5 10d
Shnaider vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 69¢ $4 11d
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 12d
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 42¢ $3 13d
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 14d
Andreeva vs. Teichmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $7 15d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $4 16d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $8 16d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $10 16d
Ruud vs. Paul: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 17d
Li vs. Parry: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech BUY Jil Teichmann 41¢ $4 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 46¢ $3 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong SELL Stan Wawrinka 37¢ $3 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong BUY Stan Wawrinka 38¢ $3 21d
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5) BUY Busta 63¢ $5 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 32¢ $3 22d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien BUY Mariano Navone 58¢ $4 23d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Claire Liu BUY Lulu Sun 38¢ $4 24d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 39¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.00 · official $13.10 (match) · 59 history records