Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfebc…160e other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$89 (+4%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate77%37W / 11L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$29
14 days+$30
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$75
politics 20% −$107
culture 16% +$25
world 8% +$89
crypto 6% +$9
sports 4% −$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.4% -2.0% 100% 43% -0.5%
≤30d 14 +3.7% -6.2% 93% 43% +0.7%
≤90d 46 -11.1% -19.6% 76% 41% -6.7%
all 48 -8.8% -17.5% 77% 44% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 44% -6.3%
10% -25.4% 19% -15.2%
15% -32.6% 10% -23.4%
20% -39.2% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses37 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage104d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 30 $1 $0 +7%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $221 +$13 +6%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $144 −$143 -100%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $245 +$2 +1%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $230 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $230 +$3 +1%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $131 +$31 +24%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 30 $291 +$14 +5%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $37 +$5 +15%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 25 $25 +$12 +50%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $196 +$94 +48%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Gro Apr 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2026-03-28? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Clippers Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8? Apr 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 31 $40 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Bucks Mar 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $40 +$6 +15%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $12 +$3 +23%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 24 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 24? Mar 24 $11 +$2 +14%
Thunder vs. 76ers Mar 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral elec Mar 23 $49 +$3 +5%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $22 +$9 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 28h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 5d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $49 10d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 11d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 15d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $234 31d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 32d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 79¢ $30 32d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this SELL Yes $0 32d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $221 33d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $240 36d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners SELL Yes 77¢ $32 36d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 80¢ $20 36d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 22¢ $4 36d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 38d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 60¢ $10 40d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $230 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records