Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfebd…5c09 other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,618 (-3%) realized −$1,617 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate72%115W / 44L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days+$106
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1,049
crypto 25% −$146
sports 22% −$336
economics 4% −$23
world 4% +$35
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +120.1% +99.1% 100% 100% +95.9%
≤30d 6 +95.3% +76.7% 100% 100% +74.0%
≤90d 13 +43.0% +29.3% 85% 77% +37.4%
all 159 -1.8% -11.1% 72% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 29% -11.9%
10% -19.6% 21% -20.3%
15% -27.4% 13% -28.0%
20% -34.5% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$135 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,617
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses115 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 164
History coverage295d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 62¢ $71 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $20 +$35 +171%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$25 +99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa w Jun 18 $17 +$8 +44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States Jun 13 $10 +$16 +154%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $19 +$3 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $100 +$79 +79%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $29 −$29 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 26 $440 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 26 $135 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 26 $428 +$10 +2%
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? Mar 25 $219 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 25 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 25 $156 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 25 $162 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 25 $154 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 25 $153 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 25 $148 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 25 $147 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $768 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 25 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 25 $136 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 25 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 25 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 25 $135 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 25 $132 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 24 $631 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 24 $618 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 24 $117 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 24 $595 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 24 $583 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 24 $573 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 24 $562 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 24 $543 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 24 $543 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 24 $511 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 24 $506 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 24 $507 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Future" during Fostering the Future Together event o Mar 24 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 24 $454 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 24 $454 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $1,099 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 24 $181 −$181 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $72 1h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will BUY 29¢ $20 47h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 27¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 72¢ $20 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06 BUY 36¢ $20 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 49¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 52¢ $25 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 49¢ $25 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa w BUY 69¢ $17 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States BUY 39¢ $10 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 88¢ $19 20d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 83¢ $8 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 40d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 53d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 27¢ $142 67d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 34¢ $179 67d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 70d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $29 71d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 72¢ $21 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $440 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $135 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $428 91d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? SELL Yes 86¢ $210 92d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $150 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $250 92d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 92d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? BUY Yes 86¢ $103 92d
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? BUY Yes 87¢ $104 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $162 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.69 · official $70.69 (match) · 487 history records