Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfec0…aeb9 sports 344 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,475 (-4%) realized −$6,463 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%178W / 165L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,116
7 days+$908
14 days+$704
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$380
sports 45% −$3,362
world 2% −$3,124
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +74.2% +57.6% 50% 50% +115.4%
≤30d 21 +9.5% -0.9% 43% 43% -7.4%
≤90d 104 -6.2% -15.1% 44% 40% -18.2%
all 343 +4.5% -5.4% 52% 45% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 45% -13.1%
10% -14.5% 42% -21.4%
15% -22.7% 39% -29.0%
20% -30.3% 33% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$708) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$369 vs −$439 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized−$6,463
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses178 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions1
Markets (closed)343 / 344
History coverage140d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $569 $557 −$12 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $449 +$1,116 +248%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $213 −$208 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $301 −$298 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $345 +$1,003 +291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,249 −$1,225 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $320 +$1,100 +344%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $516 −$516 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $908 −$908 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $148 +$92 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,134 +$669 +59%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $37 +$12 +34%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $157 −$156 -99%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $898 +$410 +46%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 10 $364 −$364 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 10 $667 −$667 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $945 −$945 -100%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-28? May 30 $306 +$389 +127%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $447 +$847 +189%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? May 26 $48 +$19 +40%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $205 −$205 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $378 −$378 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 26 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $533 +$686 +129%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-03? May 21 $245 −$245 -100%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-11? May 21 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 21 $684 −$684 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 21 $974 −$974 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $657 −$657 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? May 21 $116 +$57 +49%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 21 $629 +$933 +148%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $589 +$426 +72%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $535 +$164 +31%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $513 +$407 +79%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $280 +$1,237 +442%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $503 +$906 +180%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $723 −$723 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1,088 +$474 +44%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Apr 20 $31 +$25 +79%
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? Apr 20 $32 +$76 +238%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Apr 20 $84 +$59 +70%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $870 +$187 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $785 −$785 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $988 −$988 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $909 +$995 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $582 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $449 30h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $213 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.42 · official $557.42 (match) · 1165 history records