Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfec1…d7fa sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,851 (-15%) realized −$10,882 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%50W / 24L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$992per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$7,823
14 days−$11,015
30 days−$10,827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$7,688
world 30% −$2,889
other 22% −$219
tech 0% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -10.2% -18.8% 71% 24% -26.8%
≤30d 73 -8.7% -17.4% 68% 26% -22.8%
≤90d 74 -10.0% -18.5% 68% 26% -23.0%
all 74 -10.0% -18.5% 68% 26% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 26% -23.0%
10% -26.3% 7% -30.3%
15% -33.4% 1% -37.1%
20% -40.0% 1% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$817) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$629 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$10,882
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses50 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage38d
Avg bet$992
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 82¢ 100¢ $143 $174 +$31 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $150 −$6 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $188 −$187 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $188 +$9 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $184 +$4 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $166 +$19 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $159 +$7 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $164 −$4 -3%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $162 +$3 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $150 +$12 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $411 −$411 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $487 −$76 -16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $463 +$25 +5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $413 +$50 +12%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $381 +$32 +8%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $358 +$23 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $789 +$26 +3%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $455 −$111 -24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $62 −$47 -76%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $57 +$5 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $325 −$270 -83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $312 +$16 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $269 +$42 +16%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $252 +$17 +7%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $321 −$69 -21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $284 +$37 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $402 +$83 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $174 +$27 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $133 +$41 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $116 +$17 +14%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $104 +$12 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $96 +$8 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $90 +$6 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $79 +$8 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $114 −$36 -31%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $817 −$702 -86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $8,232 −$8,207 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6,132 +$531 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $1,425 +$143 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,764 +$355 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5,211 +$380 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $180 +$2 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,808 +$290 +10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,002 +$81 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $28 +$4 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $144 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 82¢ $144 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $150 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $188 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $188 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $184 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $77 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $108 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $166 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $159 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 84¢ $160 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $164 30h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 89¢ $164 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 87¢ $162 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $69 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $86 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $150 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $411 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 71¢ $411 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $487 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $487 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $463 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $413 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.30 · official $174.30 (match) · 290 history records