Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfec1…b807 other 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$795 (-15%) realized −$795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$136
14 days−$138
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$244
other 32% −$75
politics 13% −$505
weather 2% −$3
tech 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$2
economics 1% −$22
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 170 -9.4% -18.0% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 178 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -23.8%
all 178 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -23.8%
10% -26.9% 0% -31.1%
15% -33.9% 0% -37.8%
20% -40.4% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 178
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage595d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 24 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? Jun 24 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason Jun 24 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 24 $4 $0 -8%
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $58 −$3 -6%
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Jun 24 $0 $0 -4%
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jun 24 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Jun 24 $4 $0 -4%
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? Jun 24 $40 −$1 -4%
City Protocol FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -26%
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? Jun 24 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Tori FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 24 $14 $0 -1%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 24 $15 $0 -3%
Will QFEX launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 -5%
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $28 −$2 -8%
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will RISE launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 -6%
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju Jun 23 $49 −$22 -44%
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $3 $0 -16%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 23 $22 $0 -2%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $13 −$1 -7%
Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Jun 23 $12 $0 -3%
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
APYX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
QFEX FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
3Jane FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 23 $18 $0 -1%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 23 $4 $0 -2%
Tuyo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will Yeet launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $2 $0 -18%
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 -12%
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? Jun 22 $55 −$1 -3%
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 14m
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 14m
Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 53m
Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 58m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 83¢ $41 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 84¢ $42 1h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $5 2h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $5 2h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 2h
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 18¢ $3 4h
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 19¢ $4 4h
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 5h
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 5h
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 5h
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 5h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $38 5h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $38 5h
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 5h
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5h
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b SELL No 72¢ $4 6h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY No 74¢ $4 6h
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 6h
City Protocol FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 6h
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 578 history records