Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfec2…08af other 654 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,383 (-3%) realized −$6,400 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%304W / 349L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$581
7 days−$2,709
14 days−$1,062
30 days−$836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$9,329
sports 2% +$140
world 1% +$135
crypto 0% +$239
finance 0% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 38% -30.9%
≤30d 112 +8.9% -1.5% 48% 46% -11.3%
≤90d 439 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 44% -13.1%
all 653 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 44% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 44% -13.0%
10% -18.7% 42% -21.3%
15% -26.5% 38% -28.9%
20% -33.7% 31% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$187 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$6,400
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses304 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)653 / 654
History coverage175d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $541 $558 +$17 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $891 −$347 -39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 +$91 +30%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $199 +$451 +226%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $994 +$699 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $713 −$313 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $751 −$45 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $517 −$264 -51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $858 −$710 -83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,787 −$1,150 -64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $470 +$239 +51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $850 −$838 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $559 +$291 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $992 −$433 -44%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$109 +106%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $103 +$25 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $804 +$120 +15%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $263 +$181 +69%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $157 +$86 +55%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $846 −$50 -6%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $341 −$165 -48%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $153 +$253 +165%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $858 +$339 +40%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $657 +$343 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,017 +$803 +79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $254 −$249 -98%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $497 −$100 -20%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $996 −$91 -9%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 +$33 +66%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,013 +$768 +76%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $152 +$139 +91%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $83 −$16 -20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $119 +$155 +130%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $873 +$34 +4%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $470 +$402 +86%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,009 −$539 -53%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $203 +$400 +197%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $97 +$33 +34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $211 −$207 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $328 +$138 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $143 +$105 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $303 −$188 -62%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $131 −$81 -62%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $162 −$32 -20%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $92 −$90 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $549 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 40¢ $544 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $297 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $594 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $392 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $301 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $199 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $994 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 37¢ $400 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $712 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $347 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $280 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $253 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $417 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $148 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $707 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $303 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $334 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $491 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,296 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,019 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $709 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $165 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.00 · official $558.00 (match) · 1334 history records