Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfec4…cfc8 other 742 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,060 (+4%) realized +$1,036 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate47%406W / 463L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$348
14 days−$298
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$1,072
finance 17% +$212
sports 8% +$195
politics 6% +$77
weather 5% +$58
crypto 2% −$5
tech 1% +$11
culture 1% $0
economics 1% +$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -78.6% -80.6% 14% 6% -24.1%
≤30d 454 -37.0% -43.0% 34% 13% -6.7%
≤90d 773 +13.7% +2.9% 43% 21% -6.4%
all 869 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 23% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 23% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 18% -15.2%
15% -16.8% 13% -23.4%
20% -24.9% 11% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$2,387
Realized+$1,036
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses406 / 463
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions79
Markets (closed)869 / 742
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 79 History 869 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 59¢ 98¢ $124 $205 +$81 (+65%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $149 $167 +$18 (+12%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 100¢ $136 $143 +$7 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $112 $117 +$6 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $76 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+2%)
Will LAB reach $16 before 2027? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2? No 65¢ 92¢ $39 $55 +$16 (+40%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $45 $50 +$4 (+9%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+10%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 72¢ 84¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 421 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winne Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-02-24? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 12? Jun 29 $5 −$23 -480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$3 -92%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 29 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $77 24m
Will LAB reach $16 before 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 27m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $202 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 40m
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? BUY No 4¢ $1 44m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 1h
Will LAB dip to $6 before 2027? BUY No 66¢ $13 1h
Will LAB dip to $8 before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $14 1h
Will LAB dip to $6 before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $16 1h
Will LAB reach $16 before 2027? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will LAB dip to $6 before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $18 1h
Will LAB dip to $8 before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $17 1h
Will LAB reach $16 before 2027? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 1h
Will LAB dip to $10 before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $16 1h
Will LAB dip to $6 before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $202 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 31¢ $6 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 2h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 2h
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Storytim BUY No 96¢ $19 2h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $56 2h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $202 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 27¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $202 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 2h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $197 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2h
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? BUY No 83¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5h
Will Caleb Wilson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 74¢ $7 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,386.95 · official $2,386.29 (match) · 3500 history records