Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfeca…8c27 sports 956 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,757 (-4%) realized −$1,634 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%364W / 583L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$47
14 days−$55
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,727
crypto 8% −$53
other 2% −$217
economics 1% +$109
world 1% −$100
finance 0% +$90
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.8% -31.9% 17% 17% -22.8%
≤30d 13 -19.2% -26.9% 15% 8% -22.2%
≤90d 62 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 48% -7.8%
all 947 -3.1% -12.4% 38% 37% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 37% -12.8%
10% -20.7% 34% -21.2%
15% -28.4% 33% -28.8%
20% -35.4% 30% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$37 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$1,634
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses364 / 583
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions9
Markets (closed)947 / 956
History coverage195d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 947 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $42 $60 +$18 (+43%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+83%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+317%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-89%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $84 +$37 +44%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $27 −$9 -32%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $54 −$16 -30%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $78 −$23 -29%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $42 −$12 -29%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $33 −$24 -73%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 −$6 -40%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -9%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Apr 07 $19 +$13 +67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 07 $20 +$13 +65%
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 07 $22 +$11 +48%
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 07 $17 +$16 +92%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 07 $35 +$25 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 07 $32 +$28 +85%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 07 $33 +$27 +82%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $53 +$46 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 04 $31 −$2 -6%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 04 $55 −$54 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Apr 04 $19 +$14 +72%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 04 $19 +$14 +75%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 04 $20 +$13 +67%
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 04 $23 +$10 +41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Apr 04 $42 +$17 +40%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 04 $38 +$22 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 04 $32 +$28 +89%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 04 $37 +$23 +64%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 04 $38 +$22 +56%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 04 $53 +$46 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 02 $70 −$70 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 02 $54 −$53 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 02 $60 −$59 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 01 $17 −$17 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 01 $17 −$17 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Apr 01 $19 −$19 -99%
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 01 $24 −$24 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 01 $34 +$31 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 01 $34 +$31 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $121 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $55 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 12d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 14d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 15d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $28 86d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 53¢ $53 86d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 55¢ $55 86d
Houston Astros vs. Athletics BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $31 86d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $31 86d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $31 86d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $38 86d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $27 86d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $36 86d
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $5 86d
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $27 86d
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants BUY New York Mets 55¢ $18 86d
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants BUY New York Mets 55¢ $15 86d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $38 86d
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $4 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.52 · official $91.52 (match) · 3100 history records