Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfecb…19ba sports 412 markets active 8h ago coverage 163d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 163d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,647 (+0%) realized +$2,647 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate61%252W / 160L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,755per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$7,170est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$31,766
other 4% +$2,558
crypto 0% −$3,070
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +132.7% +110.6% 58% 58% +7.5%
≤30d 64 +15.6% +4.6% 52% 45% -2.9%
≤90d 275 -18.1% -25.9% 47% 37% -21.8%
all 412 -0.9% -10.4% 61% 42% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 42% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 34% -20.1%
15% -26.8% 27% -27.8%
20% -33.9% 23% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$3,318) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,331 vs −$2,298 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses252 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$7,170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)412 / 412
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$2,755
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 412 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2,669 +$1,521 +57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5,055 +$8,927 +177%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 16 $7,763 +$4,237 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $34,724 +$26,476 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,774 +$5,497 +198%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,247 −$7,114 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $30,965 −$30,735 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $9,994 −$8,873 -89%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $16,184 +$15,114 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $88 −$87 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $8,048 +$8,343 +104%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $272 −$268 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $9,974 +$9,679 +97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $2,003 −$1,974 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 06 $2,500 −$2,465 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5) Jun 04 $3,093 −$3,050 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $12,830 +$11,633 +91%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $13,835 +$617 +4%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 01 $3,865 −$3,810 -99%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 01 $578 −$568 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $5,113 +$1,505 +29%
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $1,945 +$890 +46%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 01 $4,563 −$4,502 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $1,964 +$4,453 +227%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2,723 +$1,670 +61%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $418 +$181 +43%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $3,162 −$3,162 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $2,747 +$2,586 +94%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $2,548 −$1,114 -44%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $6,961 −$6,820 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $9,771 −$6,599 -68%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) May 25 $126 −$125 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) May 25 $371 −$370 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $1,484 +$516 +35%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $1,007 +$21 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $457 −$450 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $5,681 +$10,957 +193%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $101 −$99 -98%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $317 −$309 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $1,330 −$1,306 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $5,673 +$628 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $1,155 +$233 +20%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $450 +$38 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $150 +$97 +65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $9,108 −$5,490 -60%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $5,771 −$5,745 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 63¢ $2,669 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 20¢ $2,150 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $2,904 7h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 64¢ $7,763 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $500 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,000 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,000 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $420 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $62 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records