Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed1…48d5 sports 21 markets active 24h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$723 (-85%) realized −$723 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$13
14 days+$5
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$724
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +68.5% +52.4% 60% 60% +81.8%
≤30d 18 +19.4% +8.0% 50% 50% +9.5%
≤90d 20 +7.5% -2.8% 45% 45% -90.5%
all 20 +7.5% -2.8% 45% 45% -90.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 45% -90.5%
10% -12.1% 45% -91.4%
15% -20.6% 45% -92.2%
20% -28.4% 40% -93.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$70 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$723
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage83d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$7 +170%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$6 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 03 $3 +$4 +146%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $6 +$3 +44%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 28 $7 +$5 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 +$5 +300%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $7 +$5 +75%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 21 $7 +$5 +78%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5 Mar 25 $733 −$733 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 23h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $3 2d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $1 2d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $1 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 30¢ $3 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $2 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 9d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 29¢ $1 12d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 29¢ $2 12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $6 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 17d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $0 19d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $3 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $0 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $7 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $0 24d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $7 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $0 26d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 29d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 29d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $0 32d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 32d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 82 history records