Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfed4…bb99 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$103 (+1%) realized +$432 · open −$329
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 38% +$1
crypto 31% +$2
finance 15% +$4
other 8% −$19
politics 6% −$317
tech 2% +$1
sports 1% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -9.6%
all 21 +6.6% -3.5% 57% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 5% -8.6%
10% -12.8% 5% -17.4%
15% -21.2% 5% -25.3%
20% -28.9% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$695) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.55 per $1 lost it wins $15.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized+$432
Unrealized−$329
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage184d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 95¢ $352 $667 +$315 (+89%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 77¢ $93 $82 −$12 (-13%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$2 (-2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ $352 $37 −$315 (-90%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 28 $700 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $695 +$4 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $712 −$8 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 30 $707 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 31 $398 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 28 $596 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $606 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 19 $610 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $609 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 03 $604 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Heat Mar 01 $84 +$116 +138%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $434 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $2,355 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $549 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $649 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $699 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $700 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $33 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $16 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $9 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $640 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $52 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $184 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $184 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $184 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $92 47d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $705 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 99¢ $712 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 100¢ $224 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 100¢ $30 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 100¢ $454 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $707 60d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $704 77d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 85d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $115 85d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $186 85d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $78 85d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $92 85d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $47 85d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $170 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $398 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $201 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $14 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $181 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.05 · official $872.05 (match) · 172 history records