Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed4…788d crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-7%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$18
crypto 30% +$73
other 17% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 40% -6.6%
≤30d 30 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 40% -6.6%
≤90d 30 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 40% -6.6%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 40% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 40% -6.6%
10% -20.9% 37% -15.5%
15% -28.5% 37% -23.7%
20% -35.5% 37% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +128%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $95 −$3 -3%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $78 −$1 -2%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 24 $195 −$17 -9%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Team to Take First Corner Jun 24 $10 −$6 -63%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $416 −$16 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$5 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $11 +$9 +79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 70¢ $59 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $62 31h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 74¢ $33 31h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 74¢ $34 31h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 62¢ $30 37h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 37h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 62¢ $16 37h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 61¢ $21 38h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 38h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 38h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 39h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 22¢ $42 45h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 22¢ $5 45h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $57 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 25¢ $40 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $47 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 29¢ $14 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 29¢ $17 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $33 2d
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists SELL Yes 29¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records