Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfed5…4d20 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$357 (-13%) realized −$349 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$26
sports 31% +$106
crypto 9% −$45
politics 8% −$50
world 8% −$218
economics 5% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.7% -4.4% 70% 70% -5.1%
≤30d 10 +5.7% -4.4% 70% 70% -5.1%
≤90d 10 +5.7% -4.4% 70% 70% -5.1%
all 59 -38.2% -44.1% 41% 37% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 37% -21.6%
10% -49.5% 32% -29.1%
15% -54.3% 22% -36.0%
20% -58.8% 10% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage172d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 83¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 31¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $67 +$18 +26%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 +$15 +28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$76 -69%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -92%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $87 +$41 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $56 +$31 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 −$58 -58%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Feb 26 $100 +$37 +37%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $250 +$91 +36%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 23 $10 +$18 +185%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 23 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-21? Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-02-20? Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 20 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF América end in a draw? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $150 +$64 +43%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $20 +$18 +91%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Wizards Feb 04 $80 +$15 +19%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 04 $58 +$44 +75%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -96%
FC Hermannstadt vs. FC Rapid 1923: Both Teams to Score Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 17h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 81¢ $85 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $67 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $67 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $52 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $35 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $111 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $87 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $43 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 15¢ $13 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $10 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Clippers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 83¢ $72 113d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 115d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 115d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 115d
Pelicans vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 20¢ $10 115d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 115d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 115d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.34 · official $62.27 (match) · 98 history records