Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfed7…1ead
crypto · 1346 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$670 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$683 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$317
Realized−$683
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1129 / 454
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1583 / 1346
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day66.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 15 History 1583 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$969
7 days−$931
14 days−$811
30 days−$683
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election? No 43¢ 99¢ $26 $60 +$34 (+129%)
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? No 42¢ 100¢ $9 $21 +$12 (+138%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+56%)
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026? No 7¢ 9¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Will Dan Whitfield be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Arkansas? No 95¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 18¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? No 44¢ 28¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 82¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 12 $9 +$12 +138%
Will Dan Whitfield be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Arkansas? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +212%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +178%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +156%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +127%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +122%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% +$304
other 21% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 31m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 39m
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 43m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 729 -39.3% -45.1% 50% 45% -41.3%
≤30d 1583 -14.3% -22.5% 71% 62% -19.6%
≤90d 1583 -14.3% -22.5% 71% 62% -19.6%
all 1583 -14.3% -22.5% 71% 62% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 62% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 21% -27.3%
15% -36.7% 3% -34.3%
20% -42.9% 1% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.64 · official $317.01 (match) · 3500 history records