Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfed7…e405 sports 543 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56,258 (-126%) realized −$55,815 · open −$443
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%282W / 600L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day82.3pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$328
other 10% +$551
world 0% +$16
crypto 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 485 -81.2% -82.9% 13% 9% -95.2%
≤30d 815 -47.9% -52.9% 30% 24% -82.4%
≤90d 882 -44.7% -50.0% 32% 26% -79.6%
all 882 -44.7% -50.0% 32% 26% -79.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.0% 26% -79.6%
10% ← realistic here -54.8% 17% -81.6%
15% -59.1% 12% -83.4%
20% -63.1% 8% -85.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$263 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$876
Realized−$55,815
Unrealized−$443
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses282 / 600
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions9
Markets (closed)882 / 543
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day82.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 65¢ 86¢ $195 $260 +$64 (+33%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 74¢ 100¢ $157 $210 +$54 (+34%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 28¢ $290 $139 −$150 (-52%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 44¢ 62¢ $53 $74 +$21 (+40%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 73¢ 81¢ $66 $73 +$7 (+11%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 46¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 54¢ 56¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 62¢ 40¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-36%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 44¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 62¢ 74¢ $12 $15 +$2 (+20%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 59¢ 38¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-35%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 76¢ 0¢ $344 $0 −$344 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jun 20 $412 −$412 -100%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-01-24? Jun 20 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-02-15? Jun 20 $142 −$142 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18? Jun 20 $360 −$360 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will CF Pachuca vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Argentina Open, Qualification: Andrea Pellegrino vs Thiago Seyboth Wil Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will FC Utrecht vs. Sparta Rotterdam end in a draw? Jun 20 $362 −$362 -100%
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-05-10? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Merida Open Akron: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Heather Watson Jun 20 $115 −$115 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18? Jun 20 $2,713 −$2,713 -100%
Rio Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Nicolas Jarry Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $660 −$660 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Nuno Borges vs Coleman Wong Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets Jun 20 $369 −$369 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lloyd Harris vs Federico Cina Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-02-08? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
SNHL: Ambri-Piotta vs. ZSC Lions Jun 20 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
Women's Group B - Japan vs. Italy Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-14? Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 20 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-28? Jun 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Hobart International: Tatjana Maria vs Venus Williams Jun 20 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Jun 20 $332 −$332 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jun 20 $720 −$720 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-15? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Jun 20 $158 −$158 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $276 −$276 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-24? Jun 20 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $271 −$271 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 20 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-06? Jun 20 $780 −$780 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Jun 20 $216 −$216 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 20 $420 −$420 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-10? Jun 20 $140 −$140 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 20 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 20 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $13 1m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $17 2m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $17 5m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 59¢ $18 6m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $17 6m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $17 7m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 79¢ $24 8m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 75¢ $23 9m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $11 13m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $9 18m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 91¢ $27 19m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 62¢ $19 20m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 46¢ $9 20m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 46¢ $9 21m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 73¢ $22 25m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 49¢ $10 25m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 70¢ $21 29m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 93¢ $28 29m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 9¢ $3 30m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 55¢ $11 31m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 72¢ $22 33m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 74¢ $22 33m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 72¢ $22 33m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $12 35m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $14 36m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $17 37m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $17 38m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $16 38m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 81¢ $25 38m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $17 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.48 · official $866.66 · 3500 history records