Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed7…9b10 culture 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,921 (-6%) realized −$1,760 · open −$1,161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 43L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$625per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,236
7 days+$3,883
14 days+$3,483
30 days+$2,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$1,153
culture 30% −$722
sports 18% +$2,049
other 16% −$3,659
crypto 5% −$825
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +32.2% +19.6% 65% 50% +23.9%
≤30d 29 +21.8% +10.2% 59% 45% +12.6%
≤90d 57 +8.5% -1.9% 44% 37% -24.7%
all 73 +8.9% -1.5% 41% 34% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 34% -18.0%
10% -10.9% 34% -25.9%
15% -19.5% 32% -33.0%
20% -27.4% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$486 vs −$412 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$4,491
Realized−$1,760
Unrealized−$1,161
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions5
Markets (closed)73 / 79
History coverage129d
Avg bet$625
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $1,950 $3,102 +$1,152 (+59%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $1,950 $797 −$1,153 (-59%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 54¢ $330 $321 −$9 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $186 $184 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Under 41¢ 39¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $74 −$72 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $326 +$239 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $204 +$296 +146%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $440 +$310 +70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $367 +$463 +126%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $269 +$280 +104%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $248 +$61 +24%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $375 +$446 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $376 −$371 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $294 +$506 +172%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $581 +$2 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $396 −$6 -2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $274 −$270 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $321 +$579 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $711 +$564 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $131 +$69 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $310 +$190 +61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $159 −$158 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $533 −$525 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,179 +$25 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$2 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$6 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $830 +$1,839 +222%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $590 −$581 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $700 −$39 -6%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $504 −$490 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 16 $593 +$531 +90%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3,795 −$3,743 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 16 $512 −$490 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $745 −$744 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 09 $433 −$415 -96%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 08 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and May 06 $235 −$235 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 30m? May 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 May 06 $260 +$794 +306%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 Apr 30 $400 −$262 -66%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 Apr 30 $200 +$107 +54%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Apr 30 $12 +$83 +667%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 30 $407 +$858 +211%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 12 $1,066 −$888 -83%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 07 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Apr 07 $135 −$135 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 07 $1,755 +$2,081 +119%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31? Apr 04 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? Mar 31 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 57m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 57m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 57m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 57m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 58m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 58m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $330 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 41¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $188 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $74 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $326 20h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $204 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $440 42h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $307 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $50 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $28 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $117 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $49 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $277 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $2 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $1 44h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $367 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $192 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $23 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $48 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 35¢ $309 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $248 3d
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $143 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,490.96 · official $4,491.35 (match) · 684 history records