Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed7…85d0 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2
other 23% +$4
politics 12% +$2
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 5% -9.2%
all 48 -1.7% -11.0% 35% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -8.9%
10% -19.5% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage308d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $52 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $47 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $63 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $41 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $11 +$2 +14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $51 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $19 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $14 $0 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $23 +$6 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 22 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $52 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $4 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $47 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $52 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $41 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $47 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $13 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $54 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $54 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.70 · official $51.70 (match) · 192 history records