Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfed7…b06a crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11,514 (+36%) realized +$11,500 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5,414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,214
7 days+$10,214
14 days+$10,214
30 days+$10,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$942
sports 23% +$11,963
politics 10% +$75
other 7% −$1,809
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +53.7% +39.1% 40% 40% +119.5%
≤30d 10 +53.7% +39.1% 40% 40% +119.5%
≤90d 10 +53.7% +39.1% 40% 40% +119.5%
all 61 +9.7% -0.7% 41% 30% +30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 30% +30.0%
10% -10.2% 23% +17.6%
15% -18.9% 18% +6.2%
20% -26.8% 15% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
29.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$560 vs −$79 · ×7.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.93 per $1 lost it wins $4.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$5,414
Realized+$11,500
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage208d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $2,000 $2,039 +$39 (+2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2,000 $1,955 −$45 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $1,000 $1,037 +$37 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $400 $385 −$15 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,043 +$5,026 +246%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 +$1,328 +324%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,023 +$3,140 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,781 +$2,514 +141%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,265 −$1,230 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Nov 20 $229 −$33 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 20 $109 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2AM ET Nov 20 $94 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2AM ET Nov 20 $393 −$53 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Nov 20 $306 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 20 $983 −$50 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 20 $426 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Nov 20 $1,138 +$41 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET Nov 20 $810 −$66 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET Nov 20 $206 −$42 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 20 $703 −$20 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 20 $742 −$151 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1AM ET Nov 20 $261 −$2 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 20 $177 −$35 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 20 $238 −$89 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 12AM ET Nov 20 $133 +$31 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET Nov 20 $145 +$185 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 1AM ET Nov 20 $132 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12AM ET Nov 20 $651 +$44 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 11PM ET Nov 20 $80 +$65 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 20 $35 −$8 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 20 $108 +$55 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 20 $310 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 20 $301 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 20 $497 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 20 $828 +$107 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 20 $607 +$74 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 20 $135 −$21 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 20 $271 −$53 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 20 $1,406 +$428 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 20 $186 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 20 $189 +$43 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 20 $177 +$33 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 20 $576 −$9 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 20 $352 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 20 $399 −$21 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 20 $414 −$84 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 20 $439 −$64 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 20 $255 +$50 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $410 58m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,047 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7,069 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,737 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,162 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2,043 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $98 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $409 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 22h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,295 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,781 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,029 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 47h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,024 10d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,036 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $436 208d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 208d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $19 208d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 208d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,414.45 · official $5,414.45 (match) · 2668 history records