Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed9…a655 crypto 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$437 (-4%) realized −$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%168W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$679
other 2% −$23
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 62% -17.9%
≤30d 189 +1.1% -8.5% 63% 51% -15.2%
≤90d 269 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 52% -15.9%
all 269 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 52% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 52% -15.9%
10% -17.5% 39% -23.9%
15% -25.5% 28% -31.3%
20% -32.8% 20% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses168 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 270
History coverage77d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$24 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $132 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $69 +$63 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $46 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $99 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$34 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$18 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $71 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $91 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 22¢ $35 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $133 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $34.19 · 950 history records