Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed9…2e95 crypto 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$229 (+2%) realized +$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%189W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -36.6% -42.6% 23% 23% -41.6%
≤30d 59 -8.8% -17.5% 37% 31% -25.0%
≤90d 133 -13.1% -21.4% 41% 37% -22.5%
all 398 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 41% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 41% -11.1%
10% -20.1% 33% -19.6%
15% -27.8% 26% -27.4%
20% -34.9% 18% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses189 / 209
Open positions0
Markets (closed)398 / 398
History coverage183d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 398 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $68 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $93 −$56 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$26 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$29 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$21 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$11 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 30 $22 −$18 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 30 $47 −$35 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 30 $47 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 30 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 30 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 30 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 30 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 30 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 30 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $12 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 30 $43 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 30 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 29 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 29 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 29 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 29 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 29 $19 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 29 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 26 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $27 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 26 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 26 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 26 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 26 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 26 $9 +$7 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $68 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1247 history records