Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfedb…9575 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 49L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$14
politics 16% −$17
other 9% +$17
sports 2% +$8
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 -8.3% -17.1% 14% 6% -9.3%
all 61 -4.5% -13.6% 20% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 10% -9.5%
10% -21.9% 10% -18.1%
15% -29.4% 10% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage561d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $104 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $118 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $117 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $119 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $123 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $126 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $130 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $43 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 01 $29 +$26 +91%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Mar 30 $20 +$27 +138%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $33 +$13 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 28d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $20 29d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $20 29d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 30d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $21 30d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 34d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 34d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.34 · official $88.34 (match) · 244 history records