Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfedb…55be sports 1862 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$25 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%928W / 963L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$105
14 days−$69
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$3
sports 17% +$52
other 0% $0
world 0% −$27
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -49.0% -53.9% 24% 24% -52.9%
≤30d 398 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 43% -20.6%
≤90d 983 -6.9% -15.8% 49% 45% -10.6%
all 1891 -5.1% -14.1% 49% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 45% -10.4%
10% -22.3% 43% -18.9%
15% -29.8% 41% -26.8%
20% -36.7% 37% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses928 / 963
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1891 / 1862
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Celtics vs. Heat Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Nets Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India win? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Utah Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Jaguars vs. Colts Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Capitals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Troy vs. Jacksonville State Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Flyers Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Red Wings vs. Hurricanes Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Canadiens Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Rockets Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Devils Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Suns Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Canadiens Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $3 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY $1 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 33¢ $2 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $1 15h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 16h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $1 16h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $1 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $1 16h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $1 16h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $1 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $1 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $1 16h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $1 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 18h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 34h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $1 37h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 48¢ $1 37h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $1 37h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $1 37h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $1 37h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $1 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $1 37h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.83 · official $14.84 · 3500 history records