Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfedb…4522 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate80%48W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 50% -12.5%
≤30d 60 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 60 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 50% -12.5%
all 60 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 50% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 50% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 30% -20.9%
15% -26.1% 8% -28.5%
20% -33.3% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses48 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records