Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfedc…0241 other 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 771d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-3%) realized −$168 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%83W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$61
14 days−$57
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$174
sports 21% −$162
world 5% −$106
crypto 5% −$57
politics 5% −$6
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.3% +2.5% 70% 70% +11.3%
≤30d 33 -8.7% -17.4% 55% 55% -19.3%
≤90d 59 +6.3% -3.9% 61% 58% -7.3%
all 158 -11.3% -19.8% 53% 49% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 49% -12.3%
10% -27.4% 47% -20.7%
15% -34.5% 39% -28.4%
20% -40.9% 29% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

771d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses83 / 75
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage771d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 +$12 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $46 +$25 +54%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$19 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $30 +$19 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $10 +$23 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $20 +$7 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $31 +$20 +65%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $15 +$14 +90%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$18 +174%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 21 $15 $0 +1%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $30 +$31 +101%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score May 16 $30 +$13 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 13d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 14d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 17d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 59¢ $15 20d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $20 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.41 · official $59.41 (match) · 299 history records