Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5

score

FE 0xfedc…32d8 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist

Total PnL +$5,646 (+49%) realized +$5,720 · open −$74

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip

Net edge+55%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%14W / 21L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$297per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$166est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$409

7 days+$409

14 days−$1,115

30 days+$988

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+54.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+278.4%	+242.3%	33%	33%	-62.6%
≤30d	26	+55.8%	+40.9%	35%	35%	-8.8%
≤90d	35	+71.0%	+54.7%	40%	40%	+23.9%
all	35	+71.0%	+54.7%	40%	40%	+23.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+54.7%	40%	+23.9%
10%	+39.9%	40%	+12.1%
15%	+26.4%	40%	+1.2%
20%	+14.0%	40%	-8.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +71% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +82% → late +61% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$643 vs −$215 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage

Net worth$527

Realized+$5,720

Unrealized−$74

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses14 / 21

Est. fees paid−$166

Open positions4

Markets (closed)35 / 39

History coverage39d

Avg bet$297

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 35 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$200	$192	−$8 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	36¢	30¢	$200	$164	−$36 (-18%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	37¢	36¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	27¢	20¢	$100	$72	−$28 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$206	−$200	-97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 26	$103	−$100	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$306	−$300	-98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$383	+$952	+249%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$223	+$157	+70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$304	−$297	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$8	+$27	+336%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$90	−$88	-98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$100	−$98	-98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$103	−$100	-98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$300	−$109	-36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$180	−$176	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$148	−$146	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$240	+$205	+85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$150	−$147	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$726	−$195	-27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$304	−$300	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$489	+$541	+111%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$489	+$643	+132%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$788	+$861	+109%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks	Jun 07	$204	−$200	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$230	+$521	+226%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$506	−$500	-99%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 31	$294	+$238	+81%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 27	$691	−$679	-98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	May 26	$489	+$368	+75%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 25	$685	+$445	+65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	May 24	$305	+$266	+87%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 23	$233	−$230	-98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 22	$262	+$2,651	+1010%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 22	$248	−$50	-20%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 21	$412	−$403	-98%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 19	$573	+$1,127	+197%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$204	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$205	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$206	5h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	37¢	$306	23h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,327	23h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$383	26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$223	47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$304	8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	98¢	$34	8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$90	9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	22¢	$8	9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$100	10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$180	11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	21¢	$180	11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$197	11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$148	11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$445	11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$96	12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$144	12d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	20¢	$150	12d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	100¢	$1,437	12d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	64¢	$197	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$50	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.87 · official $526.43 (match) · 70 history records