Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

FE 0xfedd…0a26 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$151 (+2%) realized +$151 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate76%16W / 5L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$307per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$144

7 days+$411

14 days+$411

30 days+$411

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-4.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+5.2%	-4.9%	75%	50%	+6.3%
≤30d	8	+5.2%	-4.9%	75%	50%	+6.3%
≤90d	21	+5.6%	-4.4%	76%	57%	-7.4%
all	21	+5.6%	-4.4%	76%	57%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.4%	57%	-7.4%
10%	-13.6%	38%	-16.3%
15%	-21.9%	29%	-24.3%
20%	-29.6%	19%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +16% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$204 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$151

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses16 / 5

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage79d

Avg bet$307

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$600	+$44	+7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$27	−$23	-86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$581	+$42	+7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$142	+$40	+28%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$259	+$41	+16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$450	+$77	+17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$237	+$210	+89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$53	−$20	-38%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	Apr 10	$725	−$725	-100%
Bulls vs. Wizards	Apr 10	$669	+$49	+7%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09?	Apr 10	$643	+$33	+5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	Apr 09	$475	+$167	+35%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?	Apr 08	$418	+$57	+14%
Will Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?	Apr 07	$274	+$144	+52%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-06?	Apr 06	$223	+$95	+42%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score	Apr 06	$48	−$47	-98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06?	Apr 06	$50	+$20	+40%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04?	Apr 06	$120	+$88	+73%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 06	$74	+$46	+62%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 05	$280	−$206	-74%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 05	$104	+$21	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	93¢	$600	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	8¢	$4	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	53¢	$27	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	93¢	$581	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	82¢	$101	12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$41	16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	86¢	$259	28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	85¢	$450	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	53¢	$237	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	42¢	$33	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$31	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$22	2d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$1	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$54	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$12	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$79	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$79	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$79	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$79	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$79	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$79	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$9	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$174	73d
Bulls vs. Wizards	BUY Bulls	93¢	$669	74d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09?	BUY Yes	95¢	$643	74d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	74¢	$469	75d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	74¢	$6	75d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?	BUY Yes	88¢	$418	76d
Will Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?	BUY Yes	65¢	$274	77d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-06?	SELL Yes	100¢	$274	77d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records