Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

FE 0xfedf…e045 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$336 (+23%) realized +$337 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%10W / 8L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$88

7 days+$188

14 days+$302

30 days+$302

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+0.1%	-9.4%	71%	71%	+8.7%
≤30d	18	+17.3%	+6.2%	56%	56%	+11.4%
≤90d	18	+17.3%	+6.2%	56%	56%	+11.4%
all	18	+17.3%	+6.2%	56%	56%	+11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.2%	56%	+11.4%
10%	-4.0%	56%	+0.8%
15%	-13.3%	44%	-9.0%
20%	-21.8%	22%	-17.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +57% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$29 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$124

Realized+$337

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses10 / 8

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage11d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Over	65¢	64¢	$125	$124	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$112	+$33	+29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$112	+$65	+58%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$122	+$54	+44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 23	$112	−$112	-100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$224	+$100	+45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$240	+$58	+24%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 19	$31	−$31	-100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$71	+$30	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$102	+$47	+46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$21	+$50	+242%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 16	$21	+$26	+126%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 16	$21	+$73	+352%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$21	−$4	-21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$21	−$16	-77%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$15	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$10	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$102	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	76¢	$10	22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	76¢	$102	22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	62¢	$112	47h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	68¢	$10	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	68¢	$112	2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$325	3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$224	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$112	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$15	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$102	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	67¢	$115	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$112	6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	69¢	$20	8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	69¢	$51	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$102	9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$21	10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$21	10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$21	10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	11¢	$16	10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$31	10d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	37¢	$21	10d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	10d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	21¢	$21	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.04 · official $124.04 (match) · 46 history records