Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfee4…4eb0 sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-8%) realized −$1 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$17
other 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.3% -13.5% 22% 11% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -4.3% -13.5% 22% 11% -10.6%
≤90d 9 -4.3% -13.5% 22% 11% -10.6%
all 9 -4.3% -13.5% 22% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 11% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions43
Markets (closed)9 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Texas Rangers 41¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Over 71¢ 95¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros 34¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+192%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Over 37¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 53¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 47¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Under 22¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Under 58¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Under 85¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Kansas City Royals 70¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 51¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Texas Rangers 78¢ 85¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 77¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 69¢ 63¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 23 $2 $0 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $4 $0 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $5 −$1 -13%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$1 -15%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 7m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $2 10m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 35¢ $2 10m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 70¢ $1 13m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $2 13m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 33¢ $2 14m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 16m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $2 16m
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $2 17m
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $2 20m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 24m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 24m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $2 25m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 42¢ $2 25m
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $2 25m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 27m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 29m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 36¢ $2 30m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 30m
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2 31m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $2 33m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $2 34m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2 34m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 70¢ $2 34m
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 34m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 34m
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 34m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $2 35m
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.51 · official $69.51 (match) · 82 history records