Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfee8…9197 sports 718 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$599 (+1%) realized +$620 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%318W / 323L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$583est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,337
7 days+$1,732
14 days+$1,109
30 days+$1,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,555
other 14% −$1,292
world 1% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +19.6% +8.2% 53% 53% +3.6%
≤30d 298 +6.9% -3.3% 52% 52% -6.0%
≤90d 641 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 49% -8.9%
all 641 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 49% -8.9%
10% -18.2% 45% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 37% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 30% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$60 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$4,214
Realized+$620
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses318 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$583
Open positions77
Markets (closed)641 / 718
History coverage73d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 60¢ 62¢ $554 $577 +$22 (+4%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $250 $253 +$2 (+1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $220 $246 +$26 (+12%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 71¢ 75¢ $212 $224 +$12 (+6%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 58¢ $184 $188 +$5 (+3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 86¢ $178 $179 +$1 (+1%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 32¢ 35¢ $144 $158 +$14 (+9%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 52¢ 46¢ $156 $136 −$19 (-12%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 44¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $103 $108 +$4 (+4%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 46¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Tunisia 49¢ 34¢ $139 $98 −$41 (-30%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 28¢ 34¢ $80 $95 +$16 (+20%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 30¢ 38¢ $65 $81 +$16 (+25%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 26¢ $142 $79 −$64 (-45%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 49¢ 50¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 56¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 46¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ 28¢ $58 $47 −$11 (-19%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 38¢ $45 $47 +$1 (+3%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $47 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 319 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $54 +$59 +109%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $198 +$107 +54%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $307 +$91 +30%
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $6 +$68 +1116%
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $57 +$54 +94%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $21 +$11 +54%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $149 −$84 -56%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 Jun 20 $149 +$165 +110%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $87 −$87 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Spread: Ceará SC (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -99%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 20 $28 +$24 +87%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $12 −$11 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $20 −$19 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $40 −$39 -99%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $169 +$177 +105%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $54 +$37 +69%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $73 +$66 +91%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$42 +41%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $410 +$367 +90%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 20 $47 +$64 +138%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $24 +$87 +371%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $553 +$143 +26%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $107 +$41 +38%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $67 +$63 +93%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $57 +$54 +96%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $33 +$37 +109%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: British Columbia Lions (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $287 +$268 +93%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $276 +$279 +101%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $2 +$3 +146%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 +$19 +83%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $87 +$135 +154%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $66 +$42 +65%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 18 $19 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $63 22m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $42 23m
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino 28¢ $16 24m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $15 35m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $17 40m
Spread: Avaí FC (-1.5) BUY Avaí FC 14¢ $0 44m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $36 45m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 47m
Spread: Avaí FC (-1.5) BUY Avaí FC 14¢ $2 57m
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 21¢ $1 58m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $36 58m
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Chicago Sky 59¢ $6 59m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $8 1h
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-2.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino 11¢ $4 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $105 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $18 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $39 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $17 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 59¢ $27 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $27 1h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY SSG Landers 46¢ $9 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $26 1h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 71¢ $214 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $7 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 7h
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $17 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $3 13h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 41¢ $46 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,214.45 · official $4,214.50 (match) · 1409 history records