Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfee8…ec84 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$8
other 28% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 7% -11.2%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 7% -11.2%
all 36 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -10.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage403d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $23 −$6 -25%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $82 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $7 $0 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $43 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 +12%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $18 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marquinhos be named the Champions League Final man of the match? May 31 $19 $0 +1%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 30 $18 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $27 $0 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $38 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $8 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $8 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $4 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $33 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records