Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfee9…75ce world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$1
other 7% −$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 40% 10% -9.3%
≤30d 33 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 40 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 5% -9.5%
all 57 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage529d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $35 $37 +$1 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $57 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $51 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $291 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $37 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $11 +$2 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $251 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $226 +$3 +1%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $5 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $19 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.73 · official $36.67 (match) · 218 history records