Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeec…ff83 sports 21 markets active 5d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$332 (-21%) realized −$332 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$159
14 days−$159
30 days−$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$326
crypto 16% +$9
other 9% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -30.3% -36.9% 17% 17% -38.6%
≤30d 21 -22.4% -29.8% 38% 38% -31.8%
≤90d 21 -22.4% -29.8% 38% 38% -31.8%
all 21 -22.4% -29.8% 38% 38% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 38% -31.8%
10% -36.5% 33% -38.3%
15% -42.7% 24% -44.3%
20% -48.3% 14% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$48 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage21d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $95 −$8 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $68 +$27 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $74 −$5 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $167 −$87 -52%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 02 $82 −$80 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $48 +$34 +72%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $51 −$4 -7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $35 +$15 +42%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 May 31 $172 −$168 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 31 $25 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 31 $100 +$35 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $86 +$79 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $15 −$14 -96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $56 −$54 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $100 +$55 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $150 −$34 -22%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $70 −$68 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $82 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $82 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $87 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $87 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $95 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $68 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL South Africa 59¢ $68 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $88 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $74 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $74 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $79 6d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) BUY PortlandFire 49¢ $82 15d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 57¢ $48 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $48 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $51 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $35 17d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $172 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $100 17d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $86 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 21d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 21d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $56 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $100 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 25¢ $116 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records