Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfeec…c12f other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$21
politics 15% −$6
sports 7% −$35
economics 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -1.0% -10.5% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 109 -1.0% -10.5% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage92d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $273 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $877 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,442 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $299 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $301 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $297 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $287 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $285 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $297 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $285 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $291 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $652 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $579 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $611 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $10 10h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 32h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $132 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $65 14d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $66 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $47 15d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $47 16d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 25d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 25d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.08 · official $142.08 (match) · 326 history records