Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfeed…2453 crypto 81 markets active 5d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-14%) realized −$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$11
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$9
other 22% −$32
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -28.2% -35.1% 42% 42% -22.2%
≤30d 70 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 39% -25.2%
≤90d 70 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 39% -25.2%
all 70 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 39% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 39% -25.2%
10% -34.1% 36% -32.4%
15% -40.4% 30% -38.9%
20% -46.3% 19% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Open positions11
Markets (closed)70 / 81
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.27 · official $10.77 (match) · 144 history records