Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeed…3621 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$2
world 32% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.3% -22.4% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 5 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -6.2% -15.1% 38% 0% -11.0%
all 44 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 2% -10.1%
10% -22.8% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage464d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -43%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $40 −$3 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $9 $0 -1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 06 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $13 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $15 −$2 -12%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $11 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $39 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 23h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $3 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $37 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $40 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $3 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $33 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $38 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $11 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $32 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $43 31d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 337d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 365d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 366d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? SELL No 98¢ $8 366d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $8 366d
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $8 366d
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $8 367d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $8 367d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $8 367d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $9 367d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records