Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfeee…20fb world 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,141 (+10%) realized +$20,338 · open +$803
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$3,021per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$507est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$25,961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,890
7 days+$15,844
14 days+$15,854
30 days+$15,854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1,227
other 29% +$6,128
sports 21% +$9,161
crypto 7% +$1,642
tech 3% +$954
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 40% -1.7%
≤30d 66 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 39% -1.7%
≤90d 66 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 39% -1.7%
all 66 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 39% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 39% -1.7%
10% -18.4% 21% -11.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 14% -19.7%
20% -33.5% 11% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$2,301) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,142 vs −$778 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$25,961
Realized+$20,338
Unrealized+$803
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$507
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3,021
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $18,825 $18,696 −$129 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 76¢ 88¢ $5,510 $6,369 +$859 (+16%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $822 $895 +$73 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $33,173 −$185 -1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $665 +$2,414 +363%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4,564 −$4,373 -96%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $919 −$900 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,014 +$553 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $7,914 +$3,989 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,666 −$1,666 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $12,201 +$948 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $620 +$78 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,389 +$313 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,979 −$1,816 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,010 −$70 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,008 +$289 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,301 +$1,065 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $13,092 +$12,370 +94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,322 −$2,120 -40%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11,419 +$3,815 +33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,134 −$1,891 -89%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,476 −$1,476 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $2,810 +$113 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,022 −$1,166 -58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $613 +$347 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7,586 +$7,056 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,196 −$1,869 -85%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,819 −$86 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $1,500 +$28 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $2,101 −$36 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,876 −$371 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $800 −$596 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $1,000 −$676 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $1,000 +$243 +24%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,619 +$567 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $600 +$351 +58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,202 +$266 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3,650 +$268 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,287 −$1,990 -87%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,899 −$360 -19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,077 +$647 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,508 −$1,508 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,131 +$1,309 +61%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 13 $492 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 13 $1,013 −$156 -15%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,516 +$114 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $600 +$81 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $836 +$38 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $1,053 +$94 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $801 −$204 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $600 +$70 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $678 +$158 +23%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,017 +$475 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $18,978 14m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 88¢ $4 14m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $9,274 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $6,160 19m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,079 20m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $191 25m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,531 52m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $665 56m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $715 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,032 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 85¢ $503 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 85¢ $905 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 84¢ $1,006 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $1,000 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,568 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $3,014 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $200 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 3¢ $218 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $156 9h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 66¢ $7 13h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 66¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 90¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 90¢ $16 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 73¢ $2,339 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 90¢ $351 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 89¢ $2,035 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 64¢ $4,928 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $4,936 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,960.87 · official $25,960.87 (match) · 327 history records