Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfef2…22f5 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 390d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$878 (+30%) realized +$878 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$443
14 days+$409
30 days+$1,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$188
politics 24% +$751
sports 22% +$307
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +63.6% +48.1% 53% 53% +93.1%
≤30d 34 +30.2% +17.8% 56% 53% +48.1%
≤90d 34 +30.2% +17.8% 56% 53% +48.1%
all 39 +28.2% +16.0% 59% 56% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.0% 56% +32.0%
10% +4.9% 46% +19.3%
15% -5.2% 44% +7.8%
20% -14.5% 38% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$45 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage390d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $68 +$130 +191%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $65 +$80 +123%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $61 +$147 +240%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$37 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$39 +365%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Jun 21 $30 +$35 +114%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 +$2 +6%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $139 +$88 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $170 +$96 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $38 +$42 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 +$23 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $39 +$24 +62%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $117 +$23 +19%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $216 +$729 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 14 $178 +$22 +12%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Mar 13 $308 +$42 +14%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $132 +$175 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $198 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $12 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $40 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $15 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $20 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 30h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 18¢ $22 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland vs BUY 24¢ $65 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 32¢ $65 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 44¢ $65 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $93 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $31 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $31 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to BUY 46¢ $30 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 31¢ $33 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $31 7d
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 85¢ $227 7d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $139 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 8d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records