Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfef3…bd16 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,040 (-47%) realized −$1,026 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$436
sports 20% −$357
crypto 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 19% 19% -56.1%
≤30d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 19% 19% -56.1%
≤90d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 19% 19% -56.1%
all 16 -4.4% -13.5% 19% 19% -56.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 19% -56.1%
10% -21.8% 12% -60.3%
15% -29.3% 12% -64.2%
20% -36.3% 12% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$71 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized−$1,026
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $630 $616 −$14 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $550 +$87 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $120 −$119 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $171 −$171 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $171 −$102 -60%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +57%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$34 +1116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $636 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $550 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $120 13h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 3¢ $70 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $69 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $171 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $170 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $175 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $23 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.12 · official $616.12 (match) · 38 history records