Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfef4…179f weather 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%84W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% +$50
crypto 35% +$6
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 84 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 84 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses84 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage84d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 19? Jun 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $175 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? Jun 08 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $173 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $173 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26? May 25 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on May 23? May 23 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 22? May 21 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C or below on May 18? May 20 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 26°C or below on May 16? May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 3? May 03 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1? May 01 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 29? Apr 29 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Apr 29 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 Apr 27 $171 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 27? Apr 27 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 26? Apr 26 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 23? Apr 23 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 22? Apr 21 $169 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 15? Apr 20 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 12? Apr 12 $167 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 12 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $157 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10? Apr 10 $145 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 10? Apr 10 $606 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10? Apr 10 $598 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $102 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $77 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $102 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $76 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $102 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $75 7d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $101 8d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $66 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $66 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $110 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $175 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $174 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $86 14d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $77 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $97 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $174 17d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $174 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $147 18d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 18d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $173 19d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $173 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $173 25d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $173 25d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $173 28d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $172 29d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $172 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.89 · official $101.89 (match) · 226 history records